Analytics
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“M15 Melilla: Pablo Perez Navarro vs Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 22, 2026. As of Sep 15, 4:53 AM, Yes trades at 92.5¢, a 92.5% implied chance, $231.7 traded in the last 24 hours, $2.71K resting in the order book, a 3.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 15 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 50.0% and 92.5%); 4 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 2 recent public fills from 2 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Perez Navarro and Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez in the M15 Melilla, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Perez Navarro' if Pablo Perez Navarro advances against Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez. This market will resolve to 'Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez' if Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez advances against Pablo Perez Navarro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/itf-navarr1-sanche4-2026-09-15
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chaeri | Pablo Perez Navarro | 226.7 |
| LuckyLoo | Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez | 226.7 |
| User7429 | Pablo Perez Navarro | 5 |
| Delirious-Graph | Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez | 5 |