Analytics
“Fernandez vs. Mesa: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “M25 Gijon: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 15, 2026 UTC. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
The current provider holder request did not complete. No legacy holder rows are being substituted.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Bernardo Munk Mesa in the M25 Gijon, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/itf-marioar-mes-2026-09-08
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
Market-scoped trader rows are not available for this market.