Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 56.5% on 28 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 99.7% on 1 Oct 2024 and the lowest 56.5% on 28 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 99.7% on 1 Oct 2024. $270.99K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2024 | 56.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CaptainTonino | No | 1.37K |
| screwed-up-again | No | 99.13 |
| Gulkin | No | 79.94 |
| ahahahah | No | 55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Lebanese territory for combat operations between September 26 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only ground operations involving troops on Lebanese soil will count. Territory under Israeli control as of the creation of this market including the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms area will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enters-lebanon-before-november
| Athletic-Packet | No | 53.33 |
| Igetlucky | No | 50 |
| Nintendo | No | 10 |
| nicks-694 | Yes | 8.11 |
| softlanding | No | 3.45 |
| afterdeath | Yes | 1.67 |
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