Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20% on 25 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 20% on 25 Jun 2025 and the low 0.3% on 28 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.2 points down, to 0.3% on 28 Jun 2025. $209.12K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 8:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 25 Jun 2025 – 29 Jun 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2025 | 20.0% |
| 29 Jun 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aegon | Yes | 3K |
| Morten | Yes | 2.11K |
| Linus1995 | Yes | 1.09K |
| turnaround | Yes | 833.33 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 673.38 |
| andreasnits | Yes | 515.93 |
| jamsam | Yes | 431.35 |
| jritch | Yes | 423.08 |
| Jamesnicky | Yes | 314.36 |
| Grundmansson | Yes | 236.36 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-broken-by
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