Analytics
Resolved Yes on 24 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89.1%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 17 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 89.1% on 24 Jun 2025 and the low 23% on 22 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 62 points up, to 89.1% on 24 Jun 2025. $649.19K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 25, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 17 Jun 2025 – 24 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2025 | 40.5% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | 89.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cryptofish7 | No | 20K |
| Stale-Hydraulics | No | 13.21K |
| nibiru | No | 10.2K |
| BaltazarGombka | No | 6.23K |
| Cikevor | No | 2K |
| Charlie1010 | No | 1.1K |
| Haonl | No | 1K |
| mcnavey | No | 1K |
| Razvanccst | No | 728.2 |
| bigdidd | No | 568.52 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by July 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july-15
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