
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 11% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 11% on 27 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 18 Sep 2026. $461.7 traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 7:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 11.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 40 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 23.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260706181026740
| Yes |
| 14 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
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