Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Apr 2026.
$98.6M traded over the market's life.
533 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 22, 12:35 AM UTC
No price has been recorded for this market yet, so there is nothing to chart.
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tunshi99 | No | 5.37M |
| Royal Harbor 0B32 | No | 2.08M |
| 2kDown560kUp | No | 1.41M |
| Apitos | No | 1.23M |
| dkasljf | No | 1M |
| el-capitano | No | 793.33K |
| Scientific-Exasperation | No | 748.11K |
| orux | No | 722.5K |
| Swift Ledger A562 | No | 584.15K |
| mld7 | No | 559.16K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
