Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$708.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 11 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 84 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 17 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 37.5% on 16 Oct 2025. $708.48K traded over the market's life.

453 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 11 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Oct 2025	22.5%
1 Jan 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
maiklkl	Yes	9.3K
basmati	Yes	4.8K
itza	Yes	4.07K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.