Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 37% on 30 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 42.5% on 31 Jul 2025 and the low 0.1% on 16 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 33% on 1 Aug 2025. $3.36M traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 17, 8:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 49 points · 30 Jul 2025 – 16 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | 37.0% |
| 16 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | Yes | 380.02K |
| BowlOfPunch | Yes | 39.51K |
| zizar3 | Yes | 28.74K |
| Plainforce | Yes | 20.48K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between July 29 and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-september-15
| Double-Nucleotide | Yes | 9.53K |
| bh30457hu7p4 | Yes | 9.16K |
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 4.75K |
| SackboyIndustries | Yes | 3.46K |
| Morten | Yes | 3K |
| MJ1967 | Yes | 2.54K |
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