Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.3%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 18 Jan 2025, the highest close was 99.3% on 18 Jan 2025 and the lowest 55.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 92.5% on 14 Jan 2025. $219.72K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 18 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 55.5% |
| 18 Jan 2025 | 99.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Suburban-Cleric | No | 2.77K |
| dariosus | No | 2.62K |
| wawavast | No | 1.26K |
| closedonlymode20250119 | No | 640 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-march-31-25
| PolyDump | No | 400 |
| TheGambler69 | No | 350 |
| strimmlarn | No | 106.06 |
| Aatrohe | No | 32.26 |
| ELMAPO | No | 24.24 |
| qlq413 | No | 13.29 |
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