Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 8 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 8 Jul 2025 to 12 Jul 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 8 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 10.5% on 9 Jul 2025. $356.41K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 8:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 8 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | 21.5% |
| 12 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Generator | Yes | 8.7K |
| aegon | Yes | 1.61K |
| WatsonTrades | Yes | 1.5K |
| 32i1 | Yes | 507.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas, between July 6 and July 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-friday-929
| Pharbod | Yes | 500 |
| zsdfjsdajf | Yes | 500 |
| oracolul-din-balcesti | Yes | 325 |
| Heavy-Rhetoric | Yes | 250 |
| Darkman74k | Yes | 183.82 |
| tripax | Yes | 169.99 |
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