Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 83.5% on 23 Mar 2024. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 23 Mar 2024 to 1 May 2024, the highest close was 83.5% on 23 Mar 2024 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 May 2024. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 48% on 24 Mar 2024. $70.17K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 23 Mar 2024 – 1 May 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Mar 2024 | 83.5% |
| 1 May 2024 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Merry-Piano | Yes | 701.92 |
| Floppynutzz | Yes | 250 |
| leonmodena | Yes | 178.57 |
| 发撒额 | Yes | 8.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between March 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on April 30, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-may
| jbd | Yes | 2.38 |
| Hellolittlebird | No | 0.05 |
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