Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 63% on 23 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 23 Feb 2024 to 1 Apr 2024, the highest close was 75.5% on 25 Feb 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 53.5% on 13 Mar 2024. $85.16K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 23 Feb 2024 – 1 Apr 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2024 | 63.0% |
| 1 Apr 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HoldKeep | Yes | 60 |
| BettingonDemocracy | Yes | 6.67 |
| MM94 | Yes | 3.08 |
| LiverisKing | No | 0.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between February 21, 11:00 AM ET and March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on March 31, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-april
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