Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 30 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 65 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 7.5% on 30 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. $35.91K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 30 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 381 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 276 |
| StephanieWoods6912 | Yes | 253 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 253 |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 217.68 |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 204.53 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173.92 |
| TiffanyDillon6595 | Yes | 173 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 168.99 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 144.88 |
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