Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 9% on 12 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 9% on 12 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Nov 2024. $93.51K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 6:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2024 | 9.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ezdogz | Yes | 11.7K |
| Secret14thKey | Yes | 6.74K |
| sahar | Yes | 204.08 |
| enochsmiles | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 10 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-november
New to prediction markets?
| Aivija | Yes | 43.48 |
| thomasanderson-089 | Yes | 8 |
| budii-105 | No | 1.23 |
| Jonnnena | No | 1.12 |
| Pidor🐓 | Yes | 0.02 |
| baerwiththegewehr | No | 0.02 |
