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Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 25 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 60.5% on 31 Jan 2025 and the low 0.6% on 28 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 57.5% on 29 Jan 2025. $671.33K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 25 Jan 2025 – 1 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2025 | 30.5% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yoss1989 | Yes | 1.4K |
| Jamma | Yes | 366.8 |
| Shlosmem | Yes | 170.17 |
| joe.night2024 | Yes | 133.34 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between January 23, PM ET, and February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-march
| Ofriti | Yes | 13.16 |
| hockeybuck | No | 2.27 |
| evgeniifedorov45 | Yes | 1.64 |
| ExhaustedBoyBilly | No | 0.05 |
| lmtfalone | No | 0.03 |
| dolmil | No | 0.03 |
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