Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 16 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2025 to 1 Feb 2025, the highest close was 31.5% on 18 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 31.5% on 18 Jan 2025. $135.25K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 6:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 16 Jan 2025 – 1 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Feb 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CryptoFutures | Yes | 161.25 |
| Compassionate-Sentencing | Yes | 67.32 |
| vveranddnis | No | 0.04 |
| M-Y | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between January 4, PM ET, and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-february
| mr.oziVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 0.02 |
| vlondemone | No | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
