Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 34% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 34% on 27 Aug 2025 and the low 0.4% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 22.5% on 28 Aug 2025. $1.74M traded over the market's life.
462 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 67 points · 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 34.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ovidiut | Yes | 58K |
| mightyocean | Yes | 27.29K |
| rfnoone | Yes | 26.65K |
| DennisQuaid | Yes | 26.18K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-october-31
| theStatisticsGuy | Yes | 23.76K |
| WhatAmIDoing | Yes | 20K |
| 2117 | Yes | 19.3K |
| vk7 | Yes | 17.88K |
| Carry1 | Yes | 17.37K |
| Mean-Bob | Yes | 17.1K |
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