Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 64.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 64.5% on 5 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 42% on 6 Nov 2025. $99.85K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 64.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TBFMM | Yes | 10.43K |
| reznik.co | Yes | 1.26K |
| Limping-Cartel | Yes | 424.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 406 |
| sqwerni | Yes | 200 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 198 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 185 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Abulouis | Yes | 150 |
| Dismal-Chalice | Yes | 119.09 |
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