Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 3 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2024 to 19 Nov 2024, the highest close was 99.9% on 19 Nov 2024 and the lowest 11.5% on 14 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 77 points up, to 90% on 16 Nov 2024. $10.08M traded over the market's life.
445 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 20, 12:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 3 Oct 2024 – 19 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2024 | 39.5% |
| 19 Nov 2024 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Omrigol | No | 250.78K |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | No | 195.38K |
| K.M.W. | No | 132.68K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-iranian-nuclear-facility-in-2024
| No |
| 124.82K |
| Benjamin1234567 | No | 88.93K |
| Iseeintothefuture | No | 80K |
| Geekshm | No | 52.27K |
| Ultima94 | No | 46.76K |
| Amtp | No | 43.24K |
| Wan-Therapist | No | 39.5K |
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