Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2024.
$91.21K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 1:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 3 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2024 | 5.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Egyptiaaan | Yes | 1K |
| moSteak | Yes | 835 |
| Sherlock-Holmes | Yes | 500 |
| Pou | Yes | 500 |
| Relieved-Toque | No | 0.44 |
| liylisgeta1974 | No | 0.37 |
| Unaware-Regime | No | 0.32 |
| redfmorgrenme1985 | No | 0.2 |
| icexaten1978 | No | 0.2 |
| unadmarlei1985 | No | 0.12 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies on October 2, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-response-against-iran-today-oct-2
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