Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 14 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 14 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 82.5% on 22 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 58 points down, to 22.5% on 24 Jun 2025. $1.47M traded over the market's life.
415 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 4:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 14 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2025 | 57.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Telespane | Yes | 88.7K |
| EternaLEnVy | Yes | 26.69K |
| arabslayer | Yes | 6.44K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between July 1, and July 31, 2025, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-in-july
| Yes |
| 5.55K |
| cryptofish7 | Yes | 5.03K |
| daniel42 | Yes | 4.07K |
| evilangel1337 | Yes | 2.87K |
| ppp666 | Yes | 2.1K |
| Israeli | Yes | 1.97K |
| ARCI | Yes | 1.95K |
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