Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 2.5%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 16 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 16 Apr 2024 to 19 Apr 2024, the highest close was 29.5% on 16 Apr 2024 and the lowest 2.5% on 19 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 12% on 17 Apr 2024. $391.89K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 16 Apr 2024 – 19 Apr 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2024 | 29.5% |
| 19 Apr 2024 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VEze | No | 3.03K |
| geodirk9000 | No | 613.28 |
| ihor_tt | No | 20.62 |
| LamG | No | 10.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between April 13 and April 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-by-friday
| DegenXyz | No | 10.32 |
| Bloods | No | 10.32 |
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