Analytics
Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 24% on 30 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 150 daily closes on record from 30 May 2024 to 26 Oct 2024, the highest close was 98.9% on 26 Oct 2024 and the lowest 21.5% on 9 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 70.5% on 1 Aug 2024. $934.24K traded over the market's life.
59 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 2:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 150 points, 30 May 2024 – 26 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 May 2024 | 24.0% |
| 26 Oct 2024 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| donkey5963485 | No | 32.56K |
| enjoyerofthings | No | 20.05K |
| cryptoguy-598 | No | 12K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between May 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-by-end-of-2024
| vote.fun | No | 6K |
| mio | No | 4K |
| sodank | No | 2.89K |
| rasmr | No | 2.83K |
| GTNFTTT | No | 2.02K |
| caro | No | 876.73 |
| correcto | No | 764.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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