Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 15% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 15% on 2 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Nov 2024. $269.77K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 5:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 2 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2024 | 15.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mio | Yes | 3K |
| TheRavachol | Yes | 333.93 |
| MrRuzveld | Yes | 173.3 |
| Huskan | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially declares war against Iran between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A declaration of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made by Israel within this market's timeframe. This market's resolution source will be official information from the State of Israel.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-declares-war-on-iran-in-october
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| moodeng88 | Yes | 105 |
| HeadStripper | Yes | 67.34 |
| Stinkthemink1 | Yes | 66.67 |
| idolverse | Yes | 60 |
| Cosmicbets | Yes | 50 |
| FetalNeatness | Yes | 15 |
