Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 12 Nov 2024. Before it settled, the high was 23.5% on 23 Nov 2024 and the low 1.3% on 1 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 23.5% on 23 Nov 2024. $211.29K traded over the market's life.
422 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 5:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Nov 2024 – 1 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2024 | 20.5% |
| 1 Dec 2024 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ron24 | Yes | 3K |
| St-Qc | Yes | 2.81K |
| RoseCharts | Yes | 339.5 |
| sheriffff | Yes | 218.75 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between November 11, 2024 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be Israeli government confirmation or reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-action-against-iraq-before-december
| Acexavi | Yes | 147.06 |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | Yes | 64.61 |
| rasu | Yes | 58.57 |
| AlterEgo | Yes | 40 |
| xtrigz | Yes | 33.33 |
| Rindli | Yes | 17.65 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
