Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 41% on 9 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 42% on 21 Apr 2025 and the low 0.3% on 26 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 36.8% on 17 Nov 2025. $19.12K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 269 points, 9 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2025 | 41.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| moneyman777 | Yes | 690.68 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 259.35 |
| FreeCityIndividual | Yes | 206.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any launch attempt of the Spectrum rocket, developed by Isar Aerospace, results in a payload reaching a stable Earth orbit by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Reaching stable orbit" is defined as the successful insertion of a payload into a sustained low Earth orbit (LEO) or higher, where the payload completes at least one full revolution around Earth. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/isar-aerospace-successful-orbital-launch-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Elastic-Stopsign | Yes | 189.27 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 188.98 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 165 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 150 |
| Rewarding-Resort | Yes | 107.95 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 76 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
