Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 14 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 22% on 15 Jun 2025 and the low 1.1% on 21 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 6% on 18 Jun 2025. $243.81K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 22, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 14 Jun 2025 – 21 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2025 | 19.5% |
| 21 Jun 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmyjim12251989 | Yes | 9.62K |
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 7.23K |
| GayPride | Yes | 2.02K |
| mindyourownbusiness | Yes | 1.39K |
| Brrrrt | Yes | 1.14K |
| Jorra | Yes | 333.33 |
| Dekideki | Yes | 260 |
| someguy23794 | Yes | 224.22 |
| zzan | Yes | 151.45 |
| QuietDan | Yes | 101.86 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 12, 2025, and June 20, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 12 and June 20, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israel-conflict-ends-by-next-friday
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