Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 5% on 24 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 13.5% on 3 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 12.5% on 1 Oct 2024. $246.82K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 3:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Sep 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2024 | 5.0% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gregarious-Socks | Yes | 5.96K |
| howisitpossible | Yes | 5.26K |
| Interesting-Messenger | Yes | 698.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-us-military-before-november
| Yes |
| 500 |
| tp001 | Yes | 437.5 |
| Nory | Yes | 205.88 |
| web3funny | Yes | 100 |
| 0xwanksy | Yes | 71.43 |
| InkSharePotato | Yes | 54.92 |
| CWHIZ | Yes | 50 |
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