Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 10 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 10 Nov 2024 to 16 Nov 2024, the highest close was 9.5% on 10 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 16 Nov 2024. $302.87K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 17, 6:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 10 Nov 2024 – 16 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2024 | 9.5% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jeremoquai | Yes | 12.67K |
| Nonstop-Jaguar | Yes | 3.05K |
| enochsmiles | Yes | 2K |
| Fodler | Yes | 454.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between November 8, 10:00 PM ET and November 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-israel-by-nov-15
| Scrooge1 | Yes | 435 |
| ROYZZ | Yes | 160 |
| Unkempt-Registration | Yes | 108.58 |
| DreamDare | Yes | 100 |
| Franktank | Yes | 71.09 |
| Assured-Rocket | Yes | 42.05 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
