Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 45%. Yes opened at 17% on 24 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 45% on 1 Oct 2024 and the lowest 17% on 24 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 42.5% on 28 Sep 2024. $294.63K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 7:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 24 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2024 | 17.0% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 45.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rousseauuu | No | 12K |
| rashad94 | No | 5.45K |
| luvv | No | 2.27K |
| nikifar1 | No | 1.84K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between September 22 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-israel-before-november
| zevs8808 | No | 1.72K |
| slopol | No | 1.68K |
| Urus12 | No | 1.61K |
| zefinn | No | 1.11K |
| GeorgeDroyd1 | No | 999.6 |
| ern | No | 945.9 |
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