Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 11% on 2 Apr 2024. Before it settled, the high was 15% on 3 Apr 2024 and the low 4% on 6 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 8.5% on 4 Apr 2024. $35.5K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 2 Apr 2024 – 6 Apr 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2024 | 11.0% |
| 6 Apr 2024 | 4.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Captain Cilly | Yes | 714.29 |
| 0xaf | Yes | 82.08 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On April 1, 2024, it was reported Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran promised a "decisive response". This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria by April 5, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A response by Iran refers to action(s) carried out by Iran that are explicitly in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-response-to-israel-by-wednesday
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