Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 40% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 26.5% on 26 Mar 2026. $83.64K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 9:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 40.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sic | Yes | 1.69K |
| defiDoc | Yes | 1.61K |
| Kosher-Bangle | Yes | 1.19K |
| GorillaGluez | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before March 31, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-removed-from-world-cup-by
| doc91 | Yes | 987.9 |
| Unhealthy-Underwire | Yes | 839.37 |
| Old-Churn | Yes | 677.44 |
| Composed-Parable | Yes | 484.04 |
| ES7 | Yes | 442.02 |
| poi-cryptocrypto | Yes | 358.03 |
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