Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5% on 16 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 108 daily closes on record from 16 Apr 2024 to 1 Aug 2024, the highest close was 5.6% on 20 Apr 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2024. $116.62K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 5:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 16 Apr 2024 – 1 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Apr 2024 | 5.0% |
| 1 Aug 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Willing-Listening | Yes | 2.17K |
| klanc | Yes | 467.87 |
| FlukkyYedHee | Yes | 55.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-by-july-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 51.28 |
| 94857154 | Yes | 13.51 |
| Rox51 | No | 7.18 |
| fatfinger-201 | Yes | 5.31 |
| sageo | No | 3.06 |
| mrwubbzy | No | 2.03 |
| justmyself | Yes | 0.56 |
