Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.9%. Yes opened at 5% on 9 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 9 Oct 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 5.5% on 19 Oct 2023 and the lowest 0.2% on 27 Dec 2023. $17.77K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 7:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 9 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2023 | 5.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 3.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RemoveBeforeFlight | Yes | 2.05K |
| AAA7565 | Yes | 2.02K |
| billCosbySyrop | Yes | 634.29 |
| Ren_Immortal | Yes | 573.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2023, ET. The market will resolve to "No" if there is no credible confirmation of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon by this date.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-in-possession-of-nuclear-weapons-by-eoy
| Cassandra AI | Yes | 81.62 |
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