Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$201.9K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 43% on 3 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 43% on 3 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 41% on 12 Mar 2026. $201.92K traded over the market's life.

135 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:03 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 1 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Mar 2026	43.0%
1 Apr 2026	2.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
432432	Yes	1.99K
F-22Raptor	Yes	1.25K
Shmuela	Yes	1.17K

10 of 135 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before March 31, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.