If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

politicsResolved

Harris, settled Sep 3, 2024 UTC

Harris

100.0%

Trump

0.0%

Final Harris 100¢Final Trump 0¢

Lifetime volume

$2.1M

Resolved

Harris

Settled

Sep 3, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Harris on 3 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Harris at 96.2%. The Harris side opened at 42.5% on 22 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2024 to 3 Sep 2024, the highest close was 96.2% on 3 Sep 2024 and the lowest 28.5% on 23 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 47% on 24 Aug 2024. $2.06M traded over the market's life.

37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 5:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 22 Aug 2024 – 3 Sep 2024

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
DEMONCRAT	Trump	9.82K
Twin-Futon	Trump	518.79
chrisP	Trump	319.15
ER02CB	Trump	313.2

10 of 37 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market is on if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the 2024 presidential race, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump’s relative position will improve more. Resolution will be based on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) daily polling averages chart labeled "Trump vs. Harris", available at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris. The market will resolve according to the RCP polling averages for Trump and Harris on the day RFK Jr. drops out (Day 0) compared with the polling averages for Trump and Harris on the the seventh day after his withdrawal (Day 7) once RCP has published numbers for the the eighth day (Day 8). If Harris's polling average increases more/decreases less than Trump's, the market will resolve to "Harris". If Trump's polling average increases more/decreases less than Harris's, the market will resolve to "Trump". If both candidates' polling averages increase/decrease by the same amount, the market will resolve to 50-50. If RFK Jr. does not drop out by October 27, 2024, 11:59 PM ET the market will resolve to 50-50.