Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.5%. Yes opened at 66.5% on 21 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 150 daily closes on record from 21 May 2024 to 17 Oct 2024, the highest close was 84% on 23 Jul 2024 and the lowest 22% on 15 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 36% on 10 Aug 2024. $3.24K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 5, 1:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 150 points, 21 May 2024 – 17 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 May 2024 | 66.5% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Harbor F255 | Yes | 186.46 |
| JeffreyBezos | Yes | 10.95 |
| eapi | No | 6.45 |
On May 20, prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan announced he had requested arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity for leaders of Hamas and Israel. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICC officially issues an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar between May 19, and November 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the ICC announces that they have declined prosecutor Karim Khan's request for a warrant for Sinwar, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Criminal Court, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/icc-issues-an-arrest-warrant-for-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar
| Kokos777 | Yes | 1.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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