Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 31 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2024 to 1 Feb 2025, the highest close was 10.5% on 31 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Feb 2025. $196.32K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 3:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 31 Dec 2024 – 1 Feb 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 10.5% |
| 1 Feb 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| T3OU736 | Yes | 1.25K |
| Gargantuan-Expense | Yes | 1.1K |
| gandalf | Yes | 880.01 |
| IngeB | Yes | 816.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more credible health organizations (e.g. CDC, WHO, etc.) claims an H5N1 bird flu case was transmitted from one human to another human by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from such a credible health organization, however in case of ambiguity a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| ariaor | Yes | 714.29 |
| bludislove | Yes | 646.78 |
| BubbleBoy | Yes | 600.2 |
| Alecutzicu | Yes | 549.06 |
| Naraguchi | Yes | 428 |
| kekule | Yes | 316.71 |
