Analytics
Yes is at 98.8%, up 59 points from 39.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.8% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 99.6%. Its largest one-day move was 73 points up, to 95.5% on 10 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?”.
$5.97K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $876.63, with a 2.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 65 trades, $2.42K bought Yes and $455.87 bought No.
The largest Yes position is tinman2 with 500 shares; the largest No position is Bewitched-Cherry with 333. Ten wallets hold 81.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 39.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 98.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tinman2 | Yes | 500 |
| CaptainCoinflip | Yes | 498.5 |
| Bewitched-Cherry | No | 333.32 |
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-october-31-20260928t160000000z
| flexer78 |
| No |
| 274.74 |
| DmitriyM2 | No | 200 |
| memetal | Yes | 160.02 |
| cigarettes | No | 141.87 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 132.35 |
| kevamendez.23 | No | 102.33 |
| Fniii | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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