Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.6%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 15.5% on 28 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 13% on 5 Dec 2025. $4.01K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 10.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 2.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 390 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 297 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 129.98 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 107 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between November 26 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of November 26, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthi-strike-on-israel-by-december-31
| Dismal-Chalice | Yes | 105.78 |
| hardraver | Yes | 100 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 85 |
| Hasty-Stream | Yes | 80.11 |
| nothetalocks | Yes | 79.77 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 64 |
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