Analytics
Resolved Republican on 22 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Republican at 99.5%. Yes opened at 57% on 22 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 275 daily closes on record from 22 Feb 2024 to 22 Nov 2024, the highest close was 64.5% on 15 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 15 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 3.3% on 7 Nov 2024. $7.97M traded over the market's life.
330 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 23, 2:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 275 points, 22 Feb 2024 – 22 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2024 | 57.0% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| longzhh | Democratic | 45.83K |
| AxeCapital1 | Democratic | 29.18K |
| birdayz | Democratic | 29.01K |
The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested. This market will resolve to "Democratic" if following the 2024 U.S. House elections, the majority of voting House members are Democrats. It will resolve to "Republican" under the same conditions for Republicans. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the US House is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with / intends to caucus with at the time of their election to that position. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2024 US House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/house-control-after-2024-election
| Patriot1995 | Democratic | 24.95K |
| pann99 | Democratic | 24.65K |
| Tjohei | Democratic | 24.22K |
| Pda4976 | Democratic | 23.48K |
| peepyourpoop | Democratic | 22.8K |
| futurific | Democratic | 19.27K |
| Gerd | Democratic | 18.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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