Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.2%. Yes opened at 54% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, the highest close was 100% on 9 Dec 2025 and the lowest 54% on 3 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 76% on 4 Dec 2025. $15.01K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 11 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 54.0% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | 99.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bubblegumswisse | No | 273.99 |
| Heavenly-Tank | No | 235.83 |
| Kuzine | No | 128 |
| sohai123 | No | 78.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hong-kong-general-election-geographical-constituency-seat-turnover-40
| assertequal | No | 66 |
| Pink-Symbol | No | 61.37 |
| artem1s | No | 39.38 |
| makemybrosproud | No | 27.57 |
| Muted-Tusk | No | 25.97 |
| bangbangwarrior | No | 22.95 |
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