Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or below on January 9?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 0.5% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 9 Jan 2026, the price held at 0.5%. $5.81K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 10, 8:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 9 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Jan 2026	0.5%
9 Jan 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	918.92
TENETENET	Yes	499.97
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	429.13
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	361.94

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.