Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 71.5%. Yes opened at 19% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 15 Jan 2026, the highest close was 28.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 28.5% on 15 Jan 2026. $5.1K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 15 Jan 2026, chart shows 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 19.0% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 28.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.07K |
| paspor | Yes | 418.75 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 174 |
| ironsight | Yes | 170 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-toronto-on-january-15
| SilkS | Yes | 160.74 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 110 |
| neophyt | Yes | 100 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 89.45 |
| walka | Yes | 87.9 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 55 |
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