Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 20% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 39% on 1 Jan 2026 and the low 0.5% on 2 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 0.5% on 2 Jan 2026. $5.05K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 31 Dec 2025 – 2 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 20.0% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ges | Yes | 2.6K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 59.49 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 50 |
| ethlectro | Yes | 50 |
| Shallow-Contest | Yes | 50 |
| Maxi21 | Yes | 36.8 |
| Legend- | Yes | 20 |
| Supn | Yes | 20 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-toronto-on-january-1
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