Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 78%. Yes opened at 19% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 22% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19% on 31 Dec 2025. $5.27K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 14%–26%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 19.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 22.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VibeTrader | Yes | 999.98 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 568.7 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 453 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 448 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-january-1
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 274 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 226 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 214 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 109.88 |
| Sunoichi | Yes | 100 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 87 |
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