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“Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on September 16?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Highest temperature in Madrid on September 16?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 16, 2026. As of Sep 15, 5:31 AM, Yes trades at 4.0¢, a 4.0% implied chance, $303.88 traded in the last 24 hours, $2.55K resting in the order book, a 1.9% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 0.2% and 4.0%); 20 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 92.9% of the loaded shares; 16 recent public fills from 11 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-september-16-2026-26corbelow
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jazzswiss | Yes | 151.79 |
| t3wjvhmxk7fpcnr4ady7 | No | 151.79 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 66.78 |
| 1DVSBSTD | No | 63.3 |
| Slim-Purchase | No | 50.43 |
| a5533 | Yes | 50 |
| PythiaWPD | Yes | 49.99 |
| Bland-Dynamite | Yes | 48 |
| Pitiful-Nod | Yes | 14.01 |
| t3u | Yes | 8 |