Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 31 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 41.5% on 31 Dec 2025 and the low 16% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 16% on 1 Jan 2026. $25.5K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 31 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 41.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 16.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2K |
| Adored-Adult | Yes | 1K |
| TARU.SP | Yes | 1K |
| kiritofi | Yes | 706.62 |
| enzocostapt81 | Yes | 569 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 515 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 504 |
| samhain4ik | Yes | 500 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 335 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 243 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-london-on-january-1
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