Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 54% on 1 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 1 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 54% on 1 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 47.5% on 7 Nov 2025. $159.6K traded over the market's life.
119 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 1 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2025 | 54.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuestimateFox | Yes | 6.86K |
| imhim | Yes | 3.69K |
| WhatTheHelly | Yes | 1.91K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 1.83K |
| Avidavid | Yes | 1.06K |
| Jerem3202 | Yes | 710.36 |
| Lost-Original | Yes | 618 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.95 |
| AIlgo | Yes | 404.89 |
| Yogevprp90 | Yes | 384.78 |
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